Today’s forecast went well and there’s little change in the forecast for Sunday.

The models are all on-board for rain on Sunday, with this afternoon’s GFS and NAM having a QPF of 2.5 and 1.5 inches water respectively.

Rain starts well before daybreak and is heavy at times, especially in the morning. The models have rain continuing through the day, tapering and ending as late as 6 or 7 pm.

Looking back, the FV3-GFS had the most consistently correct forecast for Sunday.

The light showers predicted by the Friday evening model runs are still in the forecast for this morning.

The 2AM EDT (06UTC) model runs (the “off hour” runs) of the NAM and GFS continue to show light showers for mid-morning, but  some suggest the heaviest showers will be to our west and south.

Any showers end by late morning today and from 11 AM on, it should be dry until this evening.  Varying degree of cloud thinning is expected with bright spots, possibly some sun.

Unfortunately, all models have jumped on the scenario of rain, possibly heavy, for Sunday morning.  I’ll have more on this later today.

[su_box title=”Weather Forecast Update Sun 8 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Last night’s NAM has light showers, drizzle in our area for much of the day. Total QPF less than 0.20 inches water. (The GFS keeps the precip to our north.) Staying with last night’s forecast, I’m leaning towards the light scattered showers/drizzle. [/su_box]

The forecasts have been less than consistent for Sunday even in the short range.  The GFS and NAM have alternated with each model run about the placement of showers for Sunday. The latest NAM keeps the precipitation to our north.  The GFS from this afternoon has light showers in the morning in our area. Both maintain clouds now for most of the day, possibly clearing late.  It will be cool. High 59-61.

The new GFS isn’t yet available as of this post.  I’m thinking there will be light showers, scattered, in the morning.  Sometimes we just don’t know.