As mentioned this morning, Matthew does not appear to pose a threat to the mid Atlantic area in the near term.

The trend for Florida is more ominous.  The latest GFS and Navy NAVGEM model, along with specific short range hurricane models, now have the storm moving up into Florida instead of staying off the coast.  This is a serious situation.  Please check  the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this storm.

The latest computer models show a more westward track for Hurricane Matthew, either hugging the coast of Florida, or with the Navy NAVGEM model, actually moving over Florida.

The models also show a slower progression of the storm northward, very bad for the US SE coastline and Florida, but potentially sparing our area from the storm.

With a slower moving storm, an upper air trough and cold front may sweep this out to sea after the storm passes the outer banks of NC.  Timing of both features will be everything.

Another tropical storm, Nicole, has formed east of Hurricane Matthew.  This will increase the challenge and complexity of the computer modeling of Matthew.

Stay tuned.

Link to the National Hurricane Center