Tropical storm Matthew is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours.  Long range statical “ensemble” models continue to show the storm moving up the North Carolina coast next Wednesday -Thursday and then  possibly to the NJ coastline Friday, although the current trend is to start motion eastward into the Atlantic, minimizing effects here.

What is fascinating: the long range models have consistently showed a hurricane developing with this approximate track for more than a week.

With a closed low affecting our weather now and a strong tropical system developing, expect weather forecasts to be less reliable and changeable over the next week.

It’s way too early to take this seriously, but the GFS model has been showing a hurricane to develop and be blocked from eastern movement so that it hugs the mid Atlantic coastline sometime in the timeframe of next Wednesday thru Friday.  As depicted currently, this could easily rival hurricane  Sandy.  There have been several model runs showing this possibility.  Again, way too early, but this needs to be watched.