As has been the case so often this season, the storms predicted in the extended range models seem to disappear in the near term.
Such is the case with the low pressure system that had been predicted to intensify on Sunday afternoon. Instead, the jet stream now flattens, there’s no phasing of streams and a weak system scoots out to sea, hardly affecting us. We’ll have to wait again for snow this season. (Which is fine with me. )
The model forecast for the snow missing PHL today was right on and the short range models forecasts up to 2-3 days ahead have been quite good. (We can expect some snow flurries today.)
While the long range forecast models haven’t been doing too spectacularly this season regarding details, the general patterns being forecast have been reasonably good.
For at least a week, the extended GFS has been advertising a low pressure system to affect our area for the coming weekend and the timeframe has become consistent for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening .
Right now, it looks like there will be sufficient cold air and moisture to give us several inches of snow; right now it’s showing about 5 inches. Way too early to really take that number seriously, but it’s looking like a good bet for some snow for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening . Again, forecast details haven’t been too spectacular this much in advance, but I think we can expect some snow this Sunday. I’ll update during the week.
The afternoon run of the GFS has already reduced the potential Sunday snow accumulation significantly. Will keep an eye on further developments.