The GFS model has been showing the development of an eastern upper air trough, allowing cold air to filter into our area again this coming weekend.

This trough will develop at the same time that moisture is streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico.  As a result, low pressure is expected to develop near us, in the Saturday -Sunday time frame.

With some precipitation occurring at night and with atmospheric thickness levels falling below 540 dm, it is possible that we will see some light snow, unlikely to accumulate, if the precipitation occurs during the night time hours.

Wednesday Update: The latest GFS continues with the possibility of snow, with the timing occurring during Sunday afternoon and evening. It’s not a sure thing, but the models have been somewhat consistent.

It should be noted that the GFS model has been depicting this possibility for almost two weeks.  And it should be noted that a week ago, the Channel 6  weather people emphatically declared no more snow for our area this season.

Very cold weather for Thursday and Friday, becoming extremely cold Saturday and Sunday as a polar vortex dives south over our area.

Something to keep an eye on is a deep coastal storm expected to arrive in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. This could start as a bad ice storm Tuesday with an uncertain transition to sleet snow or rain.  Stay tuned.

Wednesday 10pm:  Latest NAM model has light rain showers possibly mixed with light snow late Thursday night for eastern portions of South Jersey, ending early Friday morning, as a wave of low pressure moves a stalled frontal boundary off the coast. The trend has moved this precipitation westward. The NAVGEM model had shown this westward extent yesterday and now shows light snow as far west as Philadelphia late Thursday night into Friday morning.  Stay tuned .

The model predictions continue to change in the period beyond 5 days.

I’ve been monitoring the coastal storm that is expected to form Sunday night off the southeast coast.  The track of this storm has continued to shift south and east, missing us in the latest GFS model.

The clipper system that was expected to spawn a secondary low off the coast, giving us snow late Monday now appears to transfer its energy to the above mentioned low pressure system far off the coast.  As mentioned, these northern stream clipper systems often fizzle out and this is the current trend with this system.

So what looked like another possible snowstorm for the Monday timeframe now appears to be less likely.  Possibly some light snow or snowshowers is all that may occur.   Things may change again, so stay tuned.

The cold outbreak for next week still looks likely.