For several weeks, the long range models were showing a cloudy, rainy forecast for the upcoming  Fourth of July weekend.

Things have changed, and the latest GFS model has the rain being suppressed just to our south as high pressure builds in with beautiful weather.

With this boundary being just to our south, things could easily change,  Right now, things are looking good.

The unusual cool pattern for June continues.   The upper air cyclonic flow and the dip in the jet stream relaxes on Saturday, allowing a warm front to approach Saturday.  It currently appears that much of the dynamics and moisture will lift to our north.  Much of Saturday will be dry.

For Sunday, low pressure over eastern Canada intensifies, and the associated upper air flow again becomes cyclonic, following a cold front passage.  Unsettled and cooler weather is likely again for Sunday.  A mix of clouds and sun with a possible shower and windy, as upper air vorticities rotate around the Canadian surface low.    Again, mostly dry.

This cool weather, unstable, upper air cyclonic pattern really continues on and off for much of June, with short-lived warm ups.  The medium-long range forecast for the next two weeks or so doesn’t show much of a Bermuda high pattern typical of late spring and summer.  Expect cool weather, mostly dry but with instability allowing shower-formation for the next few weeks.

A poorly defined series of disturbances will affect our weather during the first part this coming weekend. A stronger system brings rain likely for Sunday.

Friday will likely have showers at some point during the day, but the GFS and the NAM differ about QPF, with the GFS wetter than the NAM.

Saturday will likely be a mix  of clouds and some sun.  The NAM is again drier than the GFS and  I’m leaning towards the drier NAM.

Both models predict heavy rain for Sunday, especially in the afternoon.  (But that sort of forecast didn’t pan out this past Monday, as most the rain moved east into NJ, predicted by the NAM.)

Will update late Friday.