This is my first Winter Weather Outlook for the 2016 -2017 season.
For the next five days, expect temperatures to range at or above seasonal averages (average high temps about 47-49)
The extended GFS model has been advertising a wintery change starting next Thursday or Friday, where a deep low pressure system winds up to our west and a negatively tilted jet stream allows our first chance at light snow. Still just a possibility, but a cold, amplified jet stream and active moisture feed will keep things interesting for the second and third weeks in December.
Still too early for my annual winter climate Outlook, but it’s looking like an active winter season when it comes to snow and cold.
High pressure that has moved in Tuesday and the early Wednesday will move offshore as a weakening low pressure system and associated weak cold front approaches late Wednesday. Clouds will increase Wednesday afternoon, but the lack of upper air support will cause the low to weaken. Expect little precipitation.
A light shower is expected Wednesday night and possibly some light spits early Thursday morning, Thanksgiving Day.
Later Thursday morning into afternoon, it will be mostly cloudy, but some clearing possible late afternoon. High temps near a seasonable average of 51-53.
Outlook for the weekend- A new dip in the jet stream will cause low pressure to develop and intensify Friday evening and night with some very light showers. The low departs Saturday morning, with the Saturday being partly sunny/cloudy and a bit colder and breezy.
It’s too soon to give my annual Winter Climate Outlook, but I’d like to share some observations about current weather trends.
We’ve been in a mild pattern, but a highly advertised jet stream amplification for late Saturday into Sunday will give us the first taste of cold windy weather for next week. We might have some light snow showers on Sunday.
For Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and Thanksgiving Day, the models have been showing another cold front moving through with showers early in the day Thursday. The intensity of the low pressure system with this cold front has been hard to model and it’s looking less strong with recent model runs.
The first week of December is looking very active across the country and cold in our area, as a more amplified jet pattern seems to be developing.
