[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Fri AM Update: Last night’s GFS and NAM show the possibility that rain lingers into early Sunday afternoon, rather than being over by Sunday morning. I’ll update this evening.[/su_note]

Fast moving systems will affect our weather over the coming weekend.

High pressure builds in for early Saturday, after a cold front moves through with showers mid day Friday.

Low pressure approaches from the southwest on Saturday. Some sun through high clouds Saturday morning will be followed by increasing cloudiness late morning and during the afternoon.  High 49. Most of the daytime hours will be dry.   The models are in reasonably good agreement that rain moves in between 4 and 7 PM.

Moderate rain expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Light showers may linger after daybreak Sunday, with the low pressure system moving rapidly away, but expanding and intensifying as it departs.  It’s expected that skies clear during Sunday afternoon. High 51.

[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]Outlook for Thanksgiving: The models have been inconsistent in the long range. A large storm expected for Wednesday before Thanksgiving seems to have disappeared from the model forecast. The models currently show a storm for Sunday after Thanksgiving, but I would not be surprised if that changes. One thing that has been consistent is the appearance of very cold weather for the first week of December. [/su_note]

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Fri 7 AM Update: Last night’s NAM has joined the statical models in their forecast for showers /rain on Sunday afternoon and evening.[/su_note]

Saturday’s weather looks good, Sunday’s is uncertain.

High pressure builds into our area on Saturday, bringing cold and mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Saturday will be unseasonably cold with a high around 41.

For Sunday, the same high pressure system is thought by the deterministic models to block the northeast movement of a coastal low from bringing rain to our area on Sunday. So the GFS and NAM keep us dry on Sunday.

Unfortunately, the statistical ensemble models, especially the short range model (SREF)  and more recently the GFS based GEFS, have been showing a westward track and a chance of light showers/rain moving in during Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.

So there’s significant uncertainty with Sunday’s weather forecast.

I’ve been watching the trends and I think the ensemble forecasts with a chance of showers during Sunday afternoon is a strong possibility.   I’ll update Friday evening, when things should come into better focus.