Updated Oct 2 – Change in Fall/Winter precipitation outlook.

I always start my climate forecasts with a reiteration that climate prediction is very different than weather forecasting despite the appearance that they are similar. It’s an inexact science.

That said, there is an overwhelming allure among professional and amateur forecasters to attempt to predict trends in weather based on current weather patterns. So here goes.

It appears that we are experiencing a pattern change from the cold and wet pattern we had over the past year. We have just passed the second peak of the current solar cycle. This would signal a warm period for us, but the recent solar cycle expectedly peaked at a low level.

Nonetheless, we are beginning to see a pattern reminiscent of our last solar peak– increasingly milder temperatures.

In September, I thought we might have drier conditions, but I now feel that precipitation may be near average or above average.

So my climate forecast for this fall and early winter is for<b> warmer, above average temperatures. </b> Amounts of rain or snow near or above average. It doesn’t mean we’ll not see rain or snow or cold periods, but expect temperatures to average above seasonal norms.

A sharp upper air trough will approach our area,  with its surface cold front moving through mid-day Saturday.  We will have a real taste of fall by late Saturday into Sunday.

For Friday night and Saturday, showers begin and continue into Saturday, ending around noontime. (The NAM continues chances of showers a bit later than the GFS.)   High 70.  Becoming windy and partly sunny/partly cloudy by late afternoon.

For Sunday, we will be affected by the pool of cool air aloft from the upper trough.  Changeable skies with considerable cloudiness is likely.  Breezy.  Very Cool.  High 60.