It’s been a mild and easy winter so far, and quite frankly, I’ve enjoyed the lack of snow and the mild temperatures.  (It’s a fallacy that all weather people like ‘bad weather’….maybe just those hyping it on TV.)

As mentioned, the medium and long range models haven’t been too consistent or accurate in the long term this winter, having shown a few big coastal storms for us that disappeared a few model runs later.

HOWEVER, the models (GFS and ECMWF) hare been showing for this weekend, specifically late Friday through Saturday time frame, the development of a deep coastal storm that may give us our first significant snowfall.  Unlike previous predicted storms that turned out to be modeling errors, this storm has shown consistently for the past week and there is relatively good agreeement between different models. .

The big uncertainty is the exact track, which is based on the amount of amplification of the jet stream.  A deamplification  may bring in mixed precipitation to areas– The usual north and west of I95 vs south and east scenario.  The model trends have been showing a deamplification trend after the storm, so this predicted snowstorm could easily turn into a mixed precipitation event.   Stay tuned.

Low pressure will move through this evening (Friday) with moderate rain and will depart Saturday morning.

For Saturday, the pressure gradient due to the deepening departing low pressure will cause windy conditions for Saturday. Broken clouds are likely by afternoon, with some sun at times. High near 50, but will feel colder due to the windy conditions.

Another frontal boundary moves through Saturday night with some clouds lingering into Sunday.  Sunday will be colder and less windy, but high temperatures only near 40.   Yet another polar front moves through Sunday night, winds pick up and much colder air moves in for Monday.

As of tonight, there are still no snow storms showing in the medium range forecast models for our area.  (Several storms predicted long range over the past few weeks have not materialized.)

An Alberta clipper system will bring a chance of light snow late Tuesday afternoon .

As always, there are differences between the NAM and GFS models with the NAM showing about .15 inches of water and the GFS showing about .03 inches of water(QPF).   Both models have the upper atmosphere cold enough for snow but both models also show surface temperatures to be above freezing.

With the QPF values in this  low range, it is not out of the question for the precipitation to miss us or only affect northern areas. Either way little or no accumulation is expected due to temperatures being too warm.

The afternoon NAM has backed off on the QPF.  It’s down to .01 inches. So maybe a flurry in Philadelphia, maybe not.

It is expected for temperatures to drop behind the clipper so any moisture lingering may freeze later Tuesday evening.   I’ll update later tonight.

Tonight’s NAM QPF is again 0.01 inches water, the GFS has 0.04 suggesting a snow flurry or quick snow shower at most.