Category Archives: Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast -Early Edition

The closed upper low will remain to our west through Saturday, as moisture continues to stream in from the east and southeast.

Saturday looks to be cloudy.  The GFS and NAM continue with periods of rain, mostly in NJ, but extending into the PHL area.    As mentioned, forecast placement of precipitation in closed low situations is often inaccurate and difficult to model.  That said, the statistically based MOS (model output statistics) maintains a 50-60% chance of rain each 6 hour period, which is high.  So plan on a cloudy, wet day.    High  69.

(I think a peek at the short range  HRRR model Saturday morning will be needed to update and clarify the actual placement of the showers on Saturday.)

The closed low is expected to lift out on Sunday.  Mostly cloudy, maybe some sunny breaks.  Still a slight chance of a shower.  High 73.

As for Hurricane Matthew, current forecast tracks move it away from the NJ coast, although there are still some statistical ensemble model members that maintain a more westerly track.  This hurricane is already taking an unusually southern and western track, though forecast to so.  Still needs to be watched

Finally some rain for Philly…(hopefully)

Our area needs some rain, and hopefully we’ll see that tomorrow (Monday.)

The NAM was pretty good at keeping the rain out of most of the area for today.

The latest NAM has very heavy rain falling Monday morning (QPF 1.30 inches in 6 hours).   The GFS is not quite as exuberant as the NAM,  but also has moderate rain for Monday morning.

Drought conditions are tough to break, since the feedback loop between soil moisture and precipitation is weak or non-existent.  Tomorrow’s precip is expected to be fueled by the outflow of a tropical system that’s been off the SC coastline.  These tropical systems can sometimes do the trick.  I guess we’ll see.