Category Archives: Brief Forecast Update

It looks like the rain moves in about 10AM to noon on Friday. There’s still a good chance that wet snow mixes in  (non-accumulating)   between 4 and 6 PM and tapers off during the evening hours.

Here’s the latest High Resolution Ensemble Model  (the version I lately prefer):  the HIRESW-ARW MEM2.  The arrows point to the lowest critical temperature line for snow moving through at 4 PM- 6PM—

HIRESW ARW-MEM2 Simulated radar Forecast for 4 PM Friday with arrows pointing to 975mb freezing line.

 

[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]We had the clouds and light snow flurries.  High temps were much lower than forecast, closer to 32º.[/su_note]

Quick Update: Don’t let the early sunshine this morning fool you.  The models are all-onboard for upper air disturbances to move through late morning into the afternoon; expect clouds by late morning and very light, scattered snow flurries mid-afternoon.  High temps look closer to 37º.

The graphic below is from this morning’s RAP (Rapid Refresh Model) showing upper air disturbances expected to move through beginning late morning (10-12 PM and through the afternoon.)  Expect an increase in low level cloudiness.

Rapid Refresh Model forecast for 12 Noon- orange-yellow color shading is “absolute vorticity”