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Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Tuesday 08/19/25 @ 7:09 PM — The sunshine returned Tuesday afternoon, but it won’t last as a stalled front to our will try to move north as a warm front with additional moisture from the outflow circulation of Hurricane Erin. Expect scattered showers during the morning hours on Wednesday.
A cold front will try to move towards us on Wednesday afternoon, pushed by high pressure that will also take Hurricane Erin out to sea on late Thursday into Friday. Expect additional showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
As I’ve said several times over the past week, hurricanes seem to influence model forecast accuracy, so expect some changes and surprises. Updates tomorrow.
Models guiding this forecast: HREF , RRFS , REFS, ECMWF-AI, RGEM
Tuesday Forecast Update
Posted Tuesday 08/19/25 @ 11:15 AM — Latest ECMWF-AI model has little change in the path of Erin, with closest approach now 230 miles form the NC Outer Banks.
Also, unchanged is the rapid turn away towards the northeast. By 2 AM, it’s 422 miles from the NJ coast—
Unless there are changes, I’ll be tapering down my coverage of Erin, as it doesn’t pose a direct threat to our region.
As for our weather today (Tuesday), the there are interesting differences between the HRRR and the RRFS (experimental) The HRRR maintains low clouds here; the RRFS has clouds breaking for sunshine after noontime. I’m leaning towards some sunshine this afternoon, as the HRRR has a tendency to overestimate low clouds in our area.
Posted Tuesday 08/19/25 @ 7:58 AM— Several models are promising breaks in the clouds, and some sunshine in some areas, especially this afternoon.
No change with Hurricane Erin’s predicted track at this time, although the ECMWF-AI was again slightly more westward with its track last night.
Hurricane Erin Update
Posted Monday 08/18/25 @ 9:58 PM — The latest ECMWF-AI forecast continues its trend of a closer approach to the Outer Banks of NC. Now about 217 miles. Each model run has brought it slightly closer to the US coast before making a rapid turn to the northeast.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Hurricane Erin
Posted Monday 08/18/25 @ 5:58 PM — We’ll continue to have an easterly flow of cool, moist air Tuesday and likely again on Wednesday. With the stalled front to our south, areas south of the city will continue to have a chance of showers. From the city and northward, there’s a chance of light drizzle or light sprinkles, but mostly cloudy covers it. Most of each day will be rain-free.
Again, with a nearby hurricane in the picture, the models often seem to have issues and forecasts can be a bit off.
As for Hurricane Erin, there has been a subtle change with the ECMWF-AI model, with the latest having the storm about 225 miles away from the North Carolina outer banks. The trend has been for a slightly more westward track. The standard ECMWF model is even somewhat closer, about 200 miles or so. Our own GFS-AI model has been consistently 50-75 miles further eastward with its track position. Overall, there’s pretty good agreement, as hurricane forecasts go.
Posted Monday 08/18/25 @ 9:46 AM — I don’t know about you, but listening to the weather forecast yesterday, I would have guessed that today was going to be a beautiful day with cool temperatures. Well we have the cool temperatures, but it’s a cloudy day with light rain and drizzle in many areas.
The light rain is due to horizontal moisture convergence: low level moisture associated with winds moving in opposing directions causing lift. Here’s the current RAP model winds at about 5000 feet and 10,000 feet, showing opposing winds—
The latest experimental RRFS shows low clouds and a possibility of drizzle and light rain through 3 PM, with drier air moving in from the northeast, allowing clearing—
As for Erin, the ECMWF-AI model is consistent with Hurricane Erin moving about 250 miles from the NC outer banks. Here’s it’s predicted position at 8 AM Thursday—
As I’ve said many times in the past, it’s been my observation that hurricanes near the coastal US seem to affect model forecasts in seemingly unrelated areas. This is not a scientifically proven fact, just an observation I’ve made over the many years I’ve been forecasting. I don’t know why this happens, but today’s (Monday) weather is a case-in-point— I know that yesterday’s models didn’t show drizzle/showers this morning.
I think we’ll see more of these forecast issues this week with Hurricane Erin. Anyhow, let’s see if the showers really last into this afternoon.
Initially Posted Sun 11:16 PM —Cooler temperatures but plenty of clouds this week. Additionally, there’s the chance of showers especially south of the city. Indirect effects of Hurricane Erin also will come into play by Wednesday. More info Monday morning.