#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx

Sun 4:15 PM —Forecast Review — It’s a good thing I didn’t go whole hog into the HRRR cloud forecast— It couldn’t have been a nicer day! The HRRR, since its revision/update almost two years ago , tends to overstate low cloudiness.

I’m looking forward to the HRRR’s replacement, the RRFS, which seemed to do much better—

Sunday Update

Posted Sunday 03/03/24 @ 9:06 AM —The models have for the most part turned to a forecast of mostly sunny, (with some occasional clouds) but more cloudiness in northern Bucks county and western Montgomery county.

The HRRR still maintains a fair amount of low level cloudiness developing here this afternoon—

Very warm. The NBM and ECMWF have us reaching 65-66º in Philadelphia and 65º in Blue Bell with an uncertainty of ± 2º. If the HRRR is correct, those numbers may be a bit high.

Clouds move in this evening and Monday will be mostly cloudy. A similar wet system to Saturday’s (inverted front becoming a coastal low) brings rain Tuesday.

Saturday Update

Posted Saturday 03/02/24 @ 7:38 AM — Last night’s models continue a trend towards heavier rainfall today (Saturday). The GFS and HRRR have rainfall totals over 1-1.3″.

The [experimental] RRFS has even higher totals—

Rainfall should be ending from south to north about 6-8 PM tonight.

Clouds break for a very nice, warm, sunny March day on Sunday. A few clouds possible in the afternoon Sunday. Highs 62º Blue Bell, 64º Philadelphia (± 2.2º)

Previously Posted Fri 9:36 PM —(Delayed post due to some model data download issues, now resolved.)

As posted yesterday and this morning, our weather will be affected Saturday by an inverted trough along the coast that will become a weak low pressure system moving very near us. Rain starts after midnight tonight and lasts through much of the day and possibly early evening on Saturday.