Yesterday’s rain did occur mostly in the (late) afternoon, but the models didn’t exactly hit a home run with the forecast.  (The precip was further north and west for most of the day than previously expected.)

Such is the case with upper level closed low forecasts– the exact placement of the precipitation maxima are difficult to forecast.

Today’s forecast accuracy will also be affected by the same situation.   The GFS initialized LAMP forecast has a continued chance of showers here for much of the day.   The NAM initialized HRRR forecast has the upper low pivoting the moisture away from us, with most of the rain in MD and DE  during the afternoon.

The HRRR did well yesterday, so we’ll see if the rain stays mostly to our south in the afternoon.