Brief Update: The 2 PM (18z) model runs are coming in. Here are the trends—
The storm can best be seen as coming in three parts:
Heavy rain starts 5-6 PM (Blue Bell) and moves out quicker than previously forecast. High winds peak about 8PM. Rain tapers off after 9-10 PM. QPF is down to about 1 inch
Isolated, possibly heavy, thunderstorms again between midnight and 3 AM.
On Friday, upper low combines with surface low pressure over us. Additional heavy rain/thunderstorms morning and early afternoon. Additional 1 inch of rain possible Less wind.