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Thanksgiving Weather
This week’s active weather pattern will be highlighted by a cold front that moves through Tuesday morning with some showers, followed by colder temperatures. Another highlight will be a storm that approaches Wednesday night into Thursday morning bringing rain to our area.
The models are in good agreement with the cold front passage Tuesday morning. Most are cranking out 0.25 inches of much needed rain with this front. Colder temperatures are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A storm approaches late Wednesday night into Thursday. There’s been considerable uncertainty about both the track of this storm and its intensity. Much has to do with the size and configuration of the mass of cold air that descends down following the cold front on Tuesday.
The AI models have had a faster, more southern track with little intensification of this storm and very little rain for us. The latest GFS is somewhat similar.
However most of the models have moved towards a track that is further north with greater intensification and brings about 0.75 inches of rain for our area.
The latest ECMWF is most aggressive with this system —
Since there’s so much spread in the models, I expect there will be further changes in the forecast for Thanksgiving Day. Stay tuned.