As reflected by my fast update to a ‘low confidence’ forecast last night, today’s weather forecast was anything but clear cut, with the NAM and GFS models having different forecasts.
Basically, the warm front has moved through the area. Clouds this morning, with showers in NJ will dissipate by afternoon. Expect brighter skies and maybe even some sun as early as noon or 2 PM.
The latest models keep a chance of scattered showers this afternoon, but I think it may be over-done. It looks to be much drier overall for most of the afternoon; most of area rain-free, but still lower confidence than usual.
The models now have the cold front moving through later, around midnight instead of late afternoon. Thunderstorms possible around midnight.
I can see that Saturday’s forecast is going to be a below average confidence forecast. My previous forecast was NAM and HRRR based.
The area of showers predicted by the HRRR for this evening has failed to materialize. So I’m going to switch over to a GFS-based forecast. The GFS has showers later this evening and shows a high chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon.
A warm front is moving through Friday evening and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Some showers are expected as early as 8-9 PM tonight and continue through the early morning hours. (The models are keeping most of the activity in NJ.)
For Saturday, the warm front slowly moves through. It will be cloudy in the morning. Additional showers are expected in the morning and early afternoon. The models have been inconsistent and unimpressive with the amounts of precipitation. The heaviest showers are expected to be in NJ.
In the afternoon on Saturday, clouds may break for some bright spots and some sunshine, but an approaching cold front will bring the chance of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon. Again, the models are showing scattered areas and exact placement of the heavier showers again appears to be from the Delaware river and eastward.
High pressure builds in for Sunday. Mostly sunny skies and highs near 82.
