Monthly Archives: October 2016

Weather Updates

Weather Update

As mentioned on Thursday, a complex  scenario influences our weather today, but the models did impressively well with many of the major features.

With this complexity, there  are some changes in today’s forecast- According to the HRRR and GFS-LAMPS models, it appears that rain will linger in the immediate PHL area until about 10 AM.   The HRRR shows some showers reappearing about noon and lasting a few more hours.  According to the LAMPS forecast, we won’t see any bright skies or sun until late afternoon, after 4 PM (if at all.)

As suspected, temperatures will be colder than previously forecast, with highs only about 54.

 

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

Philly Weekend Weather Outlook

An interesting  weekend weather forecast as a dip in the jet stream and an associated cold front moves through Friday night while deep low pressure winds up over the Canadian maritime area.  Complicating the picture is a tropical depression far off the southeastern coastline  which is expected to become brought into the circulation of the deepening low in Canada.

As is often the case, a double barrel low pressure system is frequently poorly modeled and combining the situation with a tropical system is a double whammy.

That said, the models have been reasonably consistent with the frontal passage timing for Friday night. Where the errors may occur is the amount of rain forecast and the temperatures/wind for Saturday and Sunday.

Much of the rain is expected to miss us on Friday, as energy is expected to be transferred to our north.

As it stands right now, Saturday will start damp, windy and noticeably chilly but some breaks of sun are expected for the afternoon.  High 58, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s cooler.

Sunday will still be windy and chilly, with a mix of clouds and some sun, as a secondary front moves through late Sunday.  High 56.

Expect changes in this forecast.  I’ll update Saturday morning.

 

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

Philadelphia has some of the best weather during the month of October and this weekend will be a good example.   Large sprawling high pressure will be over us on Saturday and a weak front will move through late Sunday.

With high pressure in control, Saturday will be sunny and pleasant. High 67.

With an approaching weak frontal boundary, Sunday will start with some clouds, but become partly sunny and mild.  Some clouds return in the late afternoon with the actual frontal passage.  High 74.