No real change in the very cold weather forecast this weekend.

However…

Yesterday, I wrote about the next storm expected to reach our area late Monday into Tuesday. The trend over the past few days has been to move the track westward, putting us on the warm side of the storm, giving us a transition to rain.  In fact, it was expected to get quite warm on Tuesday.

Today’s GFS has moved to a different possibility, with the cold air maintaining its grip longer in our area, allowing a greater chance of snow Monday evening and freezing rain/sleet into Tuesday.  There even was the suggestion that enough cold air would remain to prolong the snow in southeastern PA well into Tuesday.

So, what looked like a likely snow->sleet> freezing rain>heavy rain scenario for late Monday into Tuesday is now not so clear-cut.  There may be a more snow, sleet and freezing rain from this storm in SE Pennsylvania.    Stay tuned.

Fri 10:45pm:  Latest NAM model  indicates snow may start late morning or noon Monday and several inches may accumulate before a changeover to sleet and freezing rain late Monday or Monday night, especially north and west.  New Jersey, south and east, will have a more rapid warmup.. This may be a significant storm, especially north and west of PHL before a changeover to rain.

The timing and track of this storm continues to change.  While an eventual transition to all rain still is most likely, the models often predict the lower atmosphere to warm up faster than actually occurs.