It’s interesting how much model predictions can change. The Sunday system had been predicted to be a weak, disorganized low with light rain, possibly mixed with snow on the onset.

Tonight’s model runs continue with today’s trend of a more developed low with increased QPF. The NAM predicted QPF has gone from 0.15 inches water yesterday to 0.76 inches water tonight. Some dynamic cooling will allow areas north and west of the city to have some sleet and perhaps freezing rain before changing to all rain. The GFS is somewhat warmer and has some sleet even further north and west, also changing to rain. GFS QPF is about 0.50, also greatly increased from the day before.

Clouds move in mid to late afternoon. The mixed precip starts between 7 and 9 Sunday evening and the rain ends about daybreak Monday and clouds linger.