A quick update on the status of the winter weather for Wednesday night into Thursday.

As mentioned, this storm’s track is less variable than many. What varies from model to model is the westward extent of the precipitation shield.

Tonight’s models have a wide range of QPF for the immediate Philadelphia area.  The NAM suppresses the precipitation to the east, with a very low QPF. The GFS has more extension of the snow shield westward, with a QPF of 0.30.  The experimental National Blend of Models has a QPF of 0.21.

Right now, I’m leaning towards the low levels of the NAM for PHL. That would mean about an inch of snow.   The NAM is historically good when precipitation is suppressed.

(The GFS suggests 4-5 inches.). Still too soon to be sure. Stay tuned.