UNCERTAIN WEEKEND FORECAST OUTLOOK

It’s uncommon for the 48 hour forecast to be so uncertain.  The models have been all over the map regarding the development, track and speed of the low pressure system that will affect us on Saturday.

Even the NWS Weather Prediction Center meteorologist seems frustrated by the models—

“Through the 12Z/18Z guidance, ongoing saga of model disappointment continued, owing to a rather unpredictable shortwave pattern amid a mostly predictable longwave pattern.”

That said, here’s the latest forecast based on this morning’s models— It appears that the storm will be moving faster and further east than previously forecast. (which I alluded to last night.)

The rain will start earlier Friday afternoon and will end earlier on Saturday, probably just after noontime Saturday. No snow or flurries in this forecast.

GFS Surface forecast for 12 PM Saturday showing rain ending in PHL.   (Click on image for a larger view.)

(Previous forecasts had the rain lasting into Saturday night or Sunday morning with snow flurries at the end.)

Stay tuned for updates.