The heavy rain potential will continue with us today, Thursday, for another 24-30 hours, as deep low pressure and deep moisture, (precipitable water values as high as 2.3 inches), moderate to high shear values and high thermodynamic instability values slowly exits late Friday morning.

Today’s high resolution models show several rounds of heavy rain with some scattered heavy rain early afternoon, then the heaviest rain around 4-6 PM and another heavy round about 10-11 PM.   And yet another Friday morning!  Any sun we get today will add fuel to the fire. The most likely severe activity looks to be north into NYC.

Finally for the weekend…

Saturday and Sunday appear to be fine weather days for the first few days of [astronomical] summer. Sunny skies both days with highs on Saturday 78-81 and Sunday 80-83.


  1. Hello!

    I’ve been a faithful reader of your weather blog for several years now. As a local teacher, I’ve learned to trust your “keep it real/no tv hype” snow forecasts when looking forward to snow days.

    Perhaps you can answer this question. It seems as if that since last August, we’ve been receiving an above average amount of rainfall. I know the totals were high for 2018 and so far, 2019 has been high as well. Is there a meteorological reason for this sustained pattern and is there any hope for a change in the near future?

    Abington, PA

    1. Andy, thanks for your appreciative comments. I don’t have any proven reason for the current pattern. But one of the premises of global warming climate science suggests that increased global heat results in an increase in evaporation from oceans and other bodies of water. Increased water vapor resultant from this process causes increased cloud cover and precipitation. Another known event occurring now- the decrease in solar activity and solar wind due to the current 11 year solar cycle minimum allows greater cosmic ray penetration near the earth’s orbit. Increases in primary cosmic ray flux in the atmosphere have been shown to cause cloud seeding effects. There are reliable NASA and NOAA websites reviewing theses effects. Finally, weather tends to run in patterns. I hope these theories have been helpful to answering your question.

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