There’s been a lot of talk about heavy thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon as a front moves through.  The models do show the front moving through early evening, with showers and thunderstorms between 4 and 7 PM.  However, several models tonight have anything heavy moving through to the south of the immediate Philadelphia area. 

Indeed, the models are not that impressive with many severe storm parameters in our area. Severe storm  parameters such as helicity and shear are not that high, especially with the latest HIRESW model.  Precipitable water values are not that high.  Available convective potential energy (CAPE) is moderately high, but it takes more than high CAPE to get severe storms.  We’ve seen much more impressive setups in past weeks and months.

As always, it’s best to keep an eye to the sky, but I think the heaviest storm activity will pass to our south between 4 and 7 PM.