#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx
An increase in heat and humidity will be in store for the Philadelphia area this coming week, especially noticeable Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will bring some showers and storms sometime late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Temperatures in the 90s will be widespread by Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat indices significantly higher.
The new dry period we’ve recently entered may not be broken by the showers late Wednesday, as most of the shower/storms are currently forecast to stay to our north and west. That may change, especially since the front may linger nearby on Thursday.
Long time followers of this blog know that I’ve seen a relationship between hurricane development near the continental US and model forecast accuracy of seemingly unrelated weather far from the storm.
This may become a factor as we approach the weekend and beyond. A tropical system, likely a hurricane will approach the southeastern US. Track of the storm is uncertain, but the European AI model was outstanding last year. It currently is forecasting a hurricane (AL97) approaching Florida or South Carolina by next Monday evening or Tuesday.
Many models are forecasting this storm’s formation and there’s disagreement in the eventual track, even between the current GFS-AI and ECMWF-AI models. Here’s the ECMWF-AI—
