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A trend towards milder weather this week has been well-advertised. As we saw about two weeks ago, the AI models are forecasting highs to be somewhat higher than the operational models.
First, here’s what’s happening now, Sunday afternoon—
Monday will be windy and gusty in the afternoon, ahead of a weak front.
The low pressure system in Canada (L) will move rapidly eastward and a front will develop to our west associated with that northern system on Tuesday with clouds and some showers possible mid afternoon according to the GFS and NAM-NEST.
It will briefly colder Tuesday night, but temperatures partly rebound on Wednesday.
Here’s the NBM temperature meteogram, for Blue Bell, showing its high temperatures (TMAX)—
The new ECMWF-Single AI model shows these highs—
By Thursday afternoon, another stronger cold front is expected to move through with some rain—
A cool down for Friday and another cold weekend follows, but then a big warmup for the first week in March.