Tag Archives: Standard Deviation (sd)

Weather Updates
Aside

In yesterday’s forecast, I mentioned the possibility of cloudiness for Sunday afternoon.   Several of the models have low cloudiness moving in on an easterly flow Sunday afternoon.

The model blend statistical treatment shows about 40% mean (average) cloudiness, but the standard deviation (a measure of the spread in the models or it can be interpreted as uncertainty) is as high 45-50%, especially west of Philadelphia  Sunday afternoon by 3 PM.

NBM Cloudiness Standard deviation at 3 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

The high resolution NAM-NEST shows low level cloudiness moving in, with a mix of high and middle level clouds further to our west—

NAM NEST cloud forecast (high, medium, low clouds) for 3 PM Sunday.   Low level clouds are in blue. (Click on image for a larger view.)

So, there’s uncertainty in the degree of cloudiness for Sunday afternoon, but I’m thinking it might be significant by 3 PM.

High temp Sunday 63.7º with a high confidence of 0.8º standard deviation. (The standard deviation can be thought of as 67% of the time, the temperature will fall with ± 0.8º of the mean temp 63.7º)