A winter-time precipitation scenario is setting up for our area on Monday.

A front moving through this weekend will return as a warm front, but with over-running precipitation and cold air damming.

What was originally forecast to be a quick change from light snow to rain has evolved into a “cold air damming” scenario where cold air trapped at the surface likely will result in a prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain. (The models are showing mostly freezing rain.)  The GFS also shows some dynamic cooling- as the precip increases, the surface temperatures drop.

Some amount of wintry mix may be falling into the late afternoon and longer north and west of the city.

The QPF is expected to be light and the predicted snow accumulation is about 0.5 inches, but the prolonged freezing rain possibility may present a travel issue.

The ‘event’ is more than 50 hours in the future time frame.  The higher resolution models, with the exception of the NAM NEST, only predict 36-48 hours in the future.

These things are tricky to forecast.  In our area, the models tend to under-predict the duration of the mix precip.

Stay tuned.