5PM Update:  Well, it looks like the models might have blown this one(?)  And when the models get it wrong, I get it wrong.    (The GFS LAMPS is still showing sleet for a few hours this evening.  Can we believe it?)  I’ve eliminated the freezing rain references below.

As I mentioned yesterday,  “This falls into the category of a dusting or coating and at this low QPF level, this sometimes can translate into a complete zero.”

Will the TV forecasters acknowlege that the models blew the forecast or are they going to search for some area to our north and west that had some snow to validate their forecasts?

Last night’s NAM and GFS models have increased the QPF to about 0.15 inches of water falling mostly as snow.

Snow starts about 2-3 PM in PHL and continues through until 9 PM. Areas south of Philadelphia Airport will have snow mix in with sleet and possibly some freezing rain after 5 PM, reducing snow totals there.

This will be very interesting meteorologically regarding precipitation type– 

The models are predicting a wet snow, with surface temperatures just at or above freezing.  Temperatures in the upper half of the atmosphere are just marginal for snow formation, indeed in other scenarios, I would be predicting mostly sleet and freezing rain.  The models predict temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere  to be cold enough for snow, at least north of  PHL airport.

So to me, this temperature profile appears to be an unusual one and I’m interested to see if we get mostly snow or mostly sleet or snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain. .