As predicted a few weeks ago, the warm phase we’ve been in over the month of December would likely end by the beginning of January and it seems that’s the case. Whether it’s due to the next phase of the -Madden-Julian Oscillation is anyone’s guess.

The models continue to have trouble with details in prediction more than 3 days in advance. Perhaps it’s because much of the energy is coming off of the Pacific where there are few observation stations.

The next uncertainty will affect us this weekend. After very cold weather for New Years Day, a low pressure system will move in from the southwest. The models have settled on a rainstorm for us Saturday night into Sunday, but there is very low confidence that this storm will really track over the Great Lakes. Development of a secondary coastal low or change in track will vastly affect our weather. So stay tuned.

Either way, if temperatures moderate over the weekend, the moderation will be brief, as a cold cyclonic jet flow will develop for next week.