An intensifying low pressure system in eastern Canada will bring a frontal boundary through our area Saturday afternoon.

Conflicting instability indexes and lift indexes do not give a good handle on the chance of showers or thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon.  Considerable cloudiness expected. The NAM cranks out showers/thunderstorms , mostly late afternoon.  The GFS  consistently has had the precipitation “jump” past the PHL area;  The GFS MOS still shows a moderate chance of thunderstorms between 4-7PM.  High temperatures are forecast to be near 88, but I think that may be too high.

I will use the HRRR model Saturday morning to get a better handle on the chances for thunderstorms.  Check back for an update.

For Sunday, a pool of unseasonably cold air aloft and an upper cyclonic flow will like result in sunshine leading to instability cloudiness and even a chance of pop-up showers, even though the models keep us dry at this time. Windy. Again, the models are forecasting a high of 85, but I think that is too high.