Winter Storm Outlook

There’s always another storm to watch…

Yet another storm to keep an eye on.   All models have been showing a coastal storm to develop and move up the western Atlantic.

Most models have this storm far enough off-shore with the precipitation shield barely touching NJ and eastern PA.

That said, the ECMWF  (European) has shifted slightly westward with the storm track and it has been the trend with recent storms for the track to become more westward in time.

The latest statistical models have increased the chances of some snow in our area Wednesday night into Thursday.   Too soon to be sure and certainly too soon to predict amounts.   Hopefully the models will do better with the QPF values this time.

 

Weather Updates

The models got this one wrong.

This morning’s latest NAM and GFS models got this forecast wrong.  Even as the snow is falling, both predicted a QPF of less than 0.10 inches water!  Hardly accounts for the snowfall.

Regarding the short range models, the NAM based HRRR (hourly forecast) also blew this one.  The GFS LAMPS forecasts (also hourly) shows snow likely until 2- 3 PM, although I find the GFS LAMPS is often wrong about such things.

Forgetting about the models, using old forecasting techniques, pressures are dropping along the coastline, showing the development of a coastal low.  (See graphic below.)  Not sure if my trough explanation earlier was correct.

3 hour pressure falls.

So a much larger storm than forecast.  3-4 inches in some areas seems likely, although my guess is as good as yours.  Without some reliable numbers, it’s all guess work.

It does look like it’s ending in the western suburbs, based on current radar.

I’m wondering what the media forecast people are going to say about this one?  Usually, they just do their thing, as though the  coating to 2 inches everyone forecast was nearly correct.

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'