Following a seasonably cold weekend, next week will be very warm and wet. The anomalously warm temperatures will return. X-mas eve looks to be warm and wet.
Philly Weekend Weather Forecast
A warm and increasingly moist southwesterly to southerly flow of air around a slowly departing high pressure system will continue to provide possible record setting high temperatures for us this weekend.
For Saturday, moisture overnight will break for partly sunny skies. An increase in moisture will bring cloudiness back in the late afternoon. High 64.
On Sunday, a further increase in moisture will result in mid-level cloudiness and mostly cloudy skies, with possible brighter breaks. High possibly as high as 70, if we get some sunshine poking through.
It looks like the first taste of winter will arrive late Thursday with next weekend being quite cold. However, the cold won’t last very long.
Update Sunday 12/13:
It took awhile for the altocumulus to roll in today. The rain will arrive earlier on Monday. Next weekend will be very cold here, but temperatures will moderate after a few days. The long range forecast for X-mas wet and mild.
The remainder of the month looks to be very active, with plenty of moisture and rain, alternating periods of cold and warm weather.
Winter Climate Outlook for Philadelphia
It doesn’t take much climate science background to identify that this years’s current weather pattern is very different than the last two years.
While past winters were possibly affected by the diminished solar cycle peak and the random blocking patterns that set up for unknown reasons, one recognized climate influencer is the El Ninio Pacific Ocean temperature cycle. With current Paciific Ocean water temperatures at an extreme peak, the El Ninio will over-ride any other recognized patterns or climate “oscillations” that otherwise affect our climate.
The official NOAA Climate Center has predicted a warmer and wetter winter for our area this winter, based on the El Ninio, and that sounds righ to to to me. Expect periods of very warm weather (the upcoming weekend a good example), but there will still be periods of cold. (Hey, it’s winter.). Expect mostly big rain storms, but a big snow storm could still be possible.
Right now, it appears that the warm pattern stays with us through the middle of December. Current models suggest that the more recognizable winter weather cold temperatures arrive here about December 17th.