PHL Climate Forecasts

WEATHER OUTLOOK -COLD THANKSGIVING

[su_box title=”Monday Update 10:30pm” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Tonight’s NBM model is showing a high temperature on Thanksgiving Day of 28 for Philadelphia![/su_box]

A dip in the jet stream is predicted for the coming week, with  the coldest temperatures forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday night.

amplified jet
GFS Model Forecast for Thursday, (Thanksgiving) afternoon.

The extended range GFS and NBM (National Blend of Models) shows a high of about 32 for Philadelphia on Thursday!   Actually, that’s an improvement; the forecast dip was even more amplified just a few days ago.

A warm up and rain is expected next Sunday or Monday, then a return to colder conditions sometime during the following week.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]I continue to feel we will have a colder than average winter due to the nadir in the sunspot cycle and a stormier winter as well, with plenty of moisture available in the southern jet stream from a developing El Niño in the Pacific.

I first made this preliminary climate prediction a few weeks ago.  Past information about the sunspot cycle’s influence on temperatures can be found here.[/su_note]

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Some instability cloudiness developed today (Friday), not captured by the models.

High pressure will build in tonight into Saturday.  Mostly sunny skies early Saturday will allow high temperatures to reach 43.  (The NAM is suggesting some instability cloudiness may develop as well.)

Additional clouds move in during the late afternoon Saturday as a return flow of moisture rides up over the edge of the high pressure system.

Sunday is looking mostly cloudy and chilly as the upper level moisture continues to ride over the edge of the slowly retreating high pressure system.   High 43.

Outlook: a disturbance riding over the upper ridge may bring some light precipitation (snow) Monday evening.   Will watch.  Thanksgiving day looks quiet, next weekend rainy.  The final week of November may be mild.

 

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'