Today’s NAM models maintain a strong moisture convergence over our area. Both the NAM based HRRRR and the GFS-based LAMPS forecast have sunshine with a slight chance of scattered showers during the day, increasingly likely during the late afternoon (4 PM) and especially this evening. Rainfall may be heavy.
Uncertainty with the onset of showers and thunderstorms today, with significant changes in the last night’s NAM model run.
The GFS continues with showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely after 2-4 PM. But the NAM holds off most of the showers until 6-9 PM. So “later and less” seems to be the trend for today.
Both models have the heaviest rain now missing us and moving up through NE Pennsylvania.
An unsettled weather pattern is in store for this weekend as a result of surface low pressure moving over our area on Saturday from the west followed by weak low pressure lingering on Sunday. The precipitation will be heavy due to high precipitable water and high dew points and it will be enhanced by an upper air impulse fueling the dynamics.
Saturday will start out with some sunshine, but clouds should move in during the morning, followed by rain and thunderstorms moving in from the west as early as noon to 2 PM. The rain continues into Saturday night and the models are suggesting that the rain could be heavy. It will be very humid and warm. High temps will be about 85.
Sunday might be a bit better, as some sunshine should break out, but scattered showers and thunderstorms still possible. The showers will be scattered, more likely and more areal coverage in the afternoon. Warm and very humid with high temps near 87.