A very serious situation exists for the Caribbean, as Hurricane Matthew has intensified into a Category 4 storm.

As mentioned over a week ago, this storm formation has been relatively well-predicted by the models for almost two weeks, which is very impressive.  When it comes to hurricanes, details such as speed and direction of movement have enough variations;  when incorporated in the global forecast models, it’s creates havoc with a dependable deterministic forecast.

The blocked pattern in the northern Atlantic appears to be re-establishing itself, which would cause Matthew to veer towards the US.  east coast.  The potential of a blocking setup was depicted by the GFS model for well over a week.

That said, except for intensification, the storm’s general path has been relatively close to the one predicted, except the timing has been slower by several days.   The current GFS takes the storm into the SE coastline of the US later this week and it might affect us next Saturday.  Stay tuned.