It appears that the models have been incredibly poor predicting the track of hurricane Irma in the long term.  Consistency in predicting an east coast hit has luckily faded over the weekend.  Each successive model run has had Irma take a more southerly track.

So the concern about affecting Philadelphia and the Jersey Shore has disappeared.

Last night’s models now have Irma making the same general west then north motion, but much further south, south of Florida.   What a change! The only consistent part of the predicted track is a sharp right turn, this time affecting much of Florida.  Based on the predictions so far, it’s hard to hang one’s hat on anything right now.