Despite the inconsistency of the models this season, tonight’s GFS and NAM models show a low pressure system tracking to our south and east before daybreak on Friday with the northern fringe reaching Philadelphia.
QPF values are about 0.10 inches water or about 1-2 inches of snow possible, more south and east, less north and west. The light snow starts hours before daybreak and ends during the early morning
Since this track was only a speculation yesterday, and the models have been very inconsistent this season, expect changes in this forecast. Stay tuned.
As mentioned in last week’s “commentary” post, the weather pattern for January starts off similarly to December- with a very broad jet stream troughing, giving us cold weather with a storm track that misses us to our east, followed by a flattening of the jet, with milder temperatures and a storm track to our west, giving us rain.
Also mentioned, the numerical weather models have been inconsistent and forecast accuracy regarding specifics beyond 2-3 days has been unreliable.
That is certainly true this week– a broad dip in the jet arrives on Wednesday and very cold temperatures are expected Thursday through Monday. Low pressure vorticities that would ordinarily give us snow with a sharper jet dip will likely move off to our south and east with the current broad configuration.
However, with the model’s extended forecasts so inconsistent, the possibility of snow over this weekend needs to be watched. Right now, snow looks unlikely.
