10 AM Friday: Latest NAM has further reduced the QPF to 0.07 inches water  should be a minimal snow or dusting

Light snow is still forecast by the models for Saturday afternoon. This morning’s NAM had been forecasting a QPF of 0.26 inches water falling as snow, but tonight’s NAM has backed down to 0.17 inches water.

Additionally, tonight’s NAM has the upper atmosphere warming during the afternoon, so some of the snow will be very wet and won’t accumulate very much. Surface temperatures will be close to 32, also reducing accumulation.   One inch is the current best guess.

Still too early to nail this down, but this light snow will be much less of an issue than last weekend’s snow.

This morning’s NAM and GFS data is available.  The GFS has a QPF of 0.21 inches water and the NAM  0.32.   Taking the average, we’ll say that 0.25 QPF is approximately correct.  That comes to 3, maybe 4 inches of snow in PHL and immediate areas.   Areas in southeastern NJ will have considerably more and areas to the north and west significantly less.