Updated today’s QPF…

According to the NWS Snow Spotters Page  we had a range of snow totals, about 2.5 inches in Montgomery county and 3.5 or so in Delaware county and 3.5-3.8 in parts of Chester county.

So the NAM (and my forecast) overstated the QPF a bit, but still did better than the GFS which hadn’t picked up on this snow until yesterday and was still under-predicting. Sometimes the average QPF works best, but one never knows when.  BTW, it’s still snowing lightly here in Montgomery county at 8:30AM

For today, Friday, the NAM continues to spit out 0.09 inches QPF of precipitation for this morning through this afternoon. Not clear if it will mix with and change to rain, but that changeover is likely. For tonight, QPF values are significant (0.90 inches water) but warmer thermal profiles are going to make the forecast prediction even more difficult.

I’ll be updating later this morning, based on the newer NAM and GFS data.

Using the high resolution NAM-NEST, the following are the probable snow totals for our area:

The last NAM data has just become available. QPF values have increased to 0.38 inches water, falling as snow.  Snow starts about 3-4 AM and ends between 7 and 10 AM Friday.  A fast burst of moderate snow.  Total snow accumulation about 4 possibly 5 inches, based on this data.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]One more thing….tonight’s NAM is forecasting another round of snow (2-3 inches) late Friday night ending Saturday morning. Tonight’s GFS is much warmer for Friday night and has rain.

Still too early to call the storm for Sunday evening, but temperatures appear too warm to support snow. [/su_note]