Latest GFS model data-  during thermal conditions supporting snow, a QPF  of about 0.40 inches water on Thursday.  So if we average the NAM and GFS, we’re looking at about 0.50 or about 6- 8 inches of snow.   Expect changes

So the rain today came as expected.  I underestimated  the the slower rise in temperatures and the ice accumulation .  Temperatures are moving above freezing and will stay in the upper 30s and low 40s through much of Wednesday.

A cold front moves through Wednesday evening and temperatures will drop at the surface and aloft below freezing after midnight into Thursday morning . As advertized, low pressure  will develop along this frontal boundary as it stalls out to our south. Tonight’s NAM shows a change from rain to sleet, then snow after midnight and towards morning, continuing through the day Thursday.

QPF values are over 0.60, suggesting 10 or more inches of snow possible by late Thursday afternoon or evening.    This is a dynamic situation and further changes in the forecast are likely.

Tonight’s GFS data becomes available between 10:30 and 11pm