Category Archives: Winter Storm Outlook

Winter Storm Outlook

Philly Winter Weather Update

So the rain today came as expected.  I underestimated  the the slower rise in temperatures and the ice accumulation .  Temperatures are moving above freezing and will stay in the upper 30s and low 40s through much of Wednesday.

A cold front moves through Wednesday evening and temperatures will drop at the surface and aloft below freezing after midnight into Thursday morning . As advertized, low pressure  will develop along this frontal boundary as it stalls out to our south. Tonight’s NAM shows a change from rain to sleet, then snow after midnight and towards morning, continuing through the day Thursday.

QPF values are over 0.60, suggesting 10 or more inches of snow possible by late Thursday afternoon or evening.    This is a dynamic situation and further changes in the forecast are likely.

Tonight’s GFS data becomes available between 10:30 and 11pm

Winter Storm Outlook

Philly Winter Weather Update- Tues

2 Comments

The model trend with  this storm is towards warmer and wetter.   #paWX

Yes, some light snow will start about 3PM  today, but by 7 or 8 PM, it will be changing to plain rain for the rest of tonight as temperatures get warm.   Nothing like this past Sunday.

Periods of just plain rain tomorrow, Wednesday.

Thursday is a question mark, but the NAM has the upper atmosphere remaining warm through much of Wednesday  night towards Thursday morning.   Not so sure that the heavy snow being advertised  (Adam Joseph said last night that ALL the models have 4+ inches of snow for  Thursday- that’s not what I see) is so definite.

Unfortunately, the TV weather people have lumped together two very different weather events over the next three days and made them into a singular monster.   Not so!

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts, Winter Storm Outlook

Winter Weather Update- Monday

1 Comment

The next few days will be a roller-coaster weatherwise.

First,  the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe should be nothing like this past Sunday’s icestorm.  This upcoming storm on Tuesday will be much warmer and wetter.  While precipitation may start as snow, it will quickly turnover to sleet and then rain.  Some sleet buildup, but it should not be a major concern long term.

Unlike yesterday, temperatures at the surface will rise above freezing and the entire atmospheric vertical column will be much warmer.  So a turnover to heavy rain is expected Tuesday evening and the rain should continue into Wednesday.  There should not be the extensive ice buildup we have just experienced.

Rain continues Wednesday, as the low pressure system moves through to our north, and a cold front will move through sometime later Wednesday. Timing uncertain.

Temperatures will be in the 40s on Wednesday, not likely in the  50s as had been previously thought.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the GFS has the front stalling just to our south as a wave of low pressure develops and moves along the front. The final stalled position of the front is uncertain, but the GFS is pumping out some significant snow late Wednesday into Thursday (4-8 inches) right now.   Too soon to really know at this time.    Stay tuned.

So the only really impactful event may  be Wednesday night into Thursday.