[su_box title=”Monday Update 10:30pm” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Tonight’s NBM model is showing a high temperature on Thanksgiving Day of 28 for Philadelphia![/su_box]
A dip in the jet stream is predicted for the coming week, with the coldest temperatures forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday night.
GFS Model Forecast for Thursday, (Thanksgiving) afternoon.
The extended range GFS and NBM (National Blend of Models) shows a high of about 32 for Philadelphia on Thursday! Actually, that’s an improvement; the forecast dip was even more amplified just a few days ago.
A warm up and rain is expected next Sunday or Monday, then a return to colder conditions sometime during the following week.
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]I continue to feel we will have a colder than average winter due to the nadir in the sunspot cycle and a stormier winter as well, with plenty of moisture available in the southern jet stream from a developing El Niño in the Pacific.
I received an email from a follower of this blog asking for my thoughts regarding the upcoming winter. Here’s what I replied:
Thanks for the confidence you expressed in my forecasts. Winter weather seasonal forecasts are more about climate than weather. Even the National Center for Climate Prediction doesn’t do too well with these very long range forecasts.
That said, I usually take a stab at the Winter Weather Seasonal Forecast towards the end of November. By that time, any pattern that may become established will have revealed itself.
But if you want an early sense of things, the nadir in the sunspot cycle suggests plenty of cold air. The current dips in the jet stream suggest a stormy winter. And an expected appearance of El Niño in the Pacific suggests plenty of moisture.
So expect a cold winter with plenty of storms and plenty of snow. That’s my best bet right now. But things could change if the jet stream dips change over to the western side of the US.
