The GFS has been quite inconsistent with the  development of low pressure in the Sunday through Monday timeframe.

The latest trend is for low pressure to develop and move over the Great Lakes, keeping us in the warm sector.  So while some light snow or mixed precipitation is possible at the start Sunday afternoon into evening,  a changeover to all rain on Monday is likely.  Little or no accumulation expected at this time.

Still unclear whether a secondary low will form off the coast on Monday with a change back to some snow towards the end of the day.

After a brief relative warmup with wet weather on Monday, another outbreak of cold air expected  next week.  The pattern remains cold and active.

The arctic airmass that will be moving in late Thursday has been well-advertised.

The models continue to hint at the possibility of some snow in the Sunday to Monday timeframe.  While the GFS has been unimpressive regarding cyclogenesis, the Navy NAVGEM and the Canadian models show low pressure developing along the frontal boundary. Still not great models consensus, but I’ve been watching this possibility for almost a week.  Stay tuned.

The latest model runs suggest that the arctic front that will move through Thursday will be associated with a less amplified jet stream than originally predicted.  That makes the likelihood of cyclogenesis less probable.

That said, some light snow is still a possibility Thursday afternoon.

Of greater interest is still the possibility of some  snow late Sunday, although the energy may split into a secondary low  too far north to truly affect us.  Still needs to be watched.

Tues PM:  There is now little indication of low pressure development along the frontal boundary for Sunday, but it wouldn’t take much for something to develop. An active pattern remains with us.