The model forecast for the snow missing PHL today was right on and the short range models forecasts up to 2-3 days ahead have been quite good.  (We can expect some snow flurries today.)

While the long range forecast models haven’t been doing too spectacularly this season regarding details, the general patterns being forecast have been reasonably good.

For at least a week, the  extended GFS has been advertising a low pressure system to affect our area for the coming weekend and the timeframe has become consistent for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening .

Right now, it looks like there will be sufficient cold air and moisture to give us several inches of snow;  right now it’s showing about 5 inches.  Way too early to really take that number seriously, but it’s looking like a good bet for some snow for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening .  Again, forecast details haven’t been too spectacular this much in advance, but I think we can expect some snow this Sunday.    I’ll update during the week.

The afternoon run of the GFS has already reduced the potential Sunday snow accumulation  significantly.  Will keep an eye on further developments.

For reasons poorly understood, there is often a warmup  sometime in the interval between January 18 and January 28th most winters.  Some winters, like last year’s, the thaw was brief.

This year, we’re at the other end of the spectrum, where above average temperatures are expected from tomorrow through almost the end of January. With many days this January already running above average, calling it a “thaw” may be a misnomer.

Along with the above average temperatures will be several days of rain.

Long range models show the return of winter the last day or so January.  Snow lovers might be satisfied the first days in February.

After we enjoy some more above average temperatures on Thursday and Friday, a cold front is expected to slip south of us on Saturday and become somewhat stationary.  Enough cold air is expected to move in to keep temperatures in the low 30s.

A small wave is expected to form on the stalled front and move just to our south Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.   About 1 inch of snow is currently expected, possibly mixed with sleet.

Here are the trends– temperatures are trending a bit colder with the front just a bit more to our south.  The small wave is trending somewhat stronger, possibly meaning more than 1 inch of snow is possible.

This season, things don’t really come into focus until the 24-36 hour time frame.  With this system, we really won’t know specifics until Friday.

By the way, much of next week looks to have more unseasonably high temperatures.  We may be getting our January thaw significantly early this year.