Here’s the forecast for this weekend –  Very Nice Weather.   🙂

An interesting weekend weather forecast for the beginning of April…

See my posts earlier this week for the synoptic details.

Previous weather outlooks for the snow this Saturday appear to be supported by the latest weather model runs.  Both the GFS and NAM crank out a QPF between 0.65 and 0.80 inches of water.

(If this were February, we’d have a significant snowstorm on our hands.  But it’s April and that’s  going to make a huge difference.)

Sun angles are high and the effects of solar insolation through clouds is prominent, preventing much, if any, accumulation on dark asphalt roadways.  Additionally, near-surface temperatures won’t be at or below freezing until late in the day.   So accumulations won’t really be a concern.

That said, it will be cloudy on Saturday, with wet snow mixed with rain, heavy at times, becoming all snow later in the afternoon.  Very windy! Highs near 40, but dropping to 32 late afternoon.   Grassy accumulations possible with icy conditions possible Saturday evening.   Greater accumulations north and west of Philadelphia.

Looks to be partly sunny and  unseasonably cold on Sunday.

Friday 6 PM Update: Latest NAM model really cranks out the precipitation, with a QPF of over 1 inch water.  The NAM has also dropped the temperatures into the 30s.  It’s possible this could become a freak spring snowstorm with accumulation!  Updates later tonight.

Friday  10:40pm Update: No significant change.  The forecast above captures everything well.  Maybe less windy and maybe a midday transition to rain before changing back to snow.

Once again, today’s (Friday) model forecast was far off target.  We were supposed to have clouds and showers throughout the day.   Not the case!

I’m not so sure we can count on the model’s weekend forecast to be on target.  It appears that the NAM did better than the GFS so we’ll go with it.

The NAM shows heavy rain Saturday morning, ending early afternoon. (The GFS also shows some rain, but significantly less.) Clouds break late Saturday afternoon as winds pickup.  High about 60.

Saturday night becoming very windy and cold as low pressure tracks through Pennsylvania.  Chance of a wet snow flurry!

Sunday, mostly sunny, windy and chilly.  High 45.

I may need to update this forecast.  A bit below usual confidence.

Update Saturday 6AM:  The NAM has showers into early afternoon today (QPF 0.26 inches water), then some brightening skies possible mid afternoon before some more clouds move in towards evening.  Still a chance of a quick sprinkle in the late afternoon.  A wet snow shower increasingly likely around midnight as winds pick up.

For Sunday, mostly sunny, very windy and chilly.  Winds subside in the afternoon.  High 44.