The persistent blocked pattern that has given us the unseasonably warm-to-hot and bone-dry weather for so many weeks will attempt to break down with the approach of a cold front.   But the blocking will be strong enough to slow down the frontal boundary on Sunday.

For Saturday, the dry weather continues here with plenty of sunshine and continued unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid 80s.

The approaching front will bring cloudiness as early as Saturday evening.

Sunday will be cloudy with an increasing chance of showers by afternoon and some rain likely Sunday evening into Monday morning.  High near 80 on Sunday.

The NAM model has considerably more rain than the GFS for us Sunday through Monday morning.  These drought conditions are difficult to break down, since soil moisture levels contribute to rain production.  Dry begets dry.

But, let’s hope we get the currently predicted 1/2  inch plus of rain predicted by the GFS.

Saturday evening update:  The NAM has most of the rain Sunday evening into Monday.  The GFS has some showers as early as Sunday mI’d to afternoon.

The southwesterly flow of unseasonably hot and humid air will be ending before daybreak on Sunday, as a cold front moves through.

Before that time, the heat and high humidity will remain with us.  We could really use some rain, but the models shear most of the dynamics off to our north and west Friday night.  There’s still a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Friday evening.

Saturday will again be hot and humid, partly cloudy/sunny, with a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening.   High 91.

Sunday looks like a very pleasant day with sunny skies and much lower humidity.  High 85.

Away, biking in Italy…limited internet access.

Latest GFS model has the hurricane remnants of Hermine  lingering off the coast of NJ, likely causing considerable damage from tides and coastal flooding.  Rain shield may move into south central NJ.