Philadelphia has some of the best weather during the month of October and this weekend will be a good example. Large sprawling high pressure will be over us on Saturday and a weak front will move through late Sunday.
With high pressure in control, Saturday will be sunny and pleasant. High 67.
With an approaching weak frontal boundary, Sunday will start with some clouds, but become partly sunny and mild. Some clouds return in the late afternoon with the actual frontal passage. High 74.
Earlier this week, the focus was on Hurricane Matthew. The path was originally expected to move up the coast, even affecting our area., however that scenario faded.
Those following the storm know that over the past two days, Matthew and its remnants are expected to be blocked from moving northward and it is expected to circle back southwestward.
Things have changed somewhat and some of Matthew’s moisture will be pulled northward enough to affect us.
Several models, including this afternoon’s NAM and GFS, are now show the plumes of Matthew’s moisture moving up the coast north enough to be swept into an approaching frontal boundary moving through our area. How much moisture actually gets pulled up is still uncertain.
Here’s the best guess for this weekend.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy. There’s a chance of showers in the PHL area by late morning and continuing throughout the day. About a 1/2 inch of rain is currently forecast to fall over this period. More rain in NJ.
Sunday will be cloudy in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon. It will be windy.
Confidence in this weekend’s forecast is below average.
Last night’s models completely changed the long range forecast path of Hurricane Matthew. The GFS now has Matthew completely blocked from leaving the coastal areas of Florida. It has the hurricane lingering and circling back onto the coast of Florida with no movement up the coast of the SE US.
Not sure if this is modeling error, or a new trend. If real, this could mean serious problems for areas of Florida.
For us, it looks like the hurricane will not be a consideration for the coming weekend, although some moisture may be tapped to increase rainfall with a frontal passage late Saturday.