6 thoughts on “PHL Winter Weather Update”

1. Glenn,
   Why do I bother to read any reports other than yours?! You are more accurate than any of them!
   Thanks!
   Renee

   1. Thanks, Renee! I’m not sure what happens with the NWS or the TV forecasters. They have the same data, even more. The “Model Differences” discussion yesterday from the NWS indicated that they had a below average confidence in the storm forecast because of the huge differences in the models. That below average confidence was not communicated to the public. And they were hanging their hat on the NAM model which seemed like a poor choice to me.

2. Good call on the fizzle out. If most people did their work with the level of accuracy of the weather forecasters, there would be a lot more people looking for work. It seems to be all about pumping up the hype and sensationalizing the event, even once it’s clear they missed the mark substantially. Post storm, instead of continuing the hype about the non-event, perhaps a more appropriate story line would reflect on the social and economic impact of their erroneous forecasts. How much lost income, productivity and angst did the bad forecast result in?

3. The NWS people are very sharp. Somehow they made the storm seem like a certainty when it wasn’t . The TV people sell hype.

4. Glenn-
   Where do you get the data you use for updates? Do you get the raw data from each model? Does each model provide QPF values over each run?

   Thanks,
   Aaron

   1. I get it directly from the NWS FTP SITE.

      http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/

      Check similar for other model data.

      The model crown jewels are at http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov It’s not all that easy.

      Glenn

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